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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently functions as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

However the latest race is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans improving collectively. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical season!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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